Saturday, August 4, 2012

What do Jobs Reports Mean?

So the latest jobs report came out with 183,000 new hires, somewhat above the 110,000 to 125,000 needed to stay even with population growth. But the unemployed rate went up from 8.2% to 8.3%. Now there's a head scratcher. Here's another one. The number of private sector jobs is even higher, but government layoffs cut the total back to the 183,000. It's sometimes hard to understand, made even more so by competing ideological views of the numbers.But if private sector hires seems to be on a very slow rise, but rise none the less, what's needed to jump start the process of recovery? Many say a government stimulus in infrastructure is needed. Many say we can't do that because of the tremendous debt.  But then they've been saying that for some considerable time. Ya know what? Such a stimulus would dramatically increase the debt. No getting around that. But the idea is that with increased employment comes increased tax revenue and a lesser burden on entitlements that, combined, would begin to pay down that debt. Still, it would mean taking a gamble that to a conservative mind is no sure bet. On the other hand, to a progressive mind, this bet seems to be the only game in town. The reason being that by shrinking government and cutting taxes as the only means of stimulating the economy, it leaves more unemployed which tends to shrink demand for goods and services so much so, that business is leery of hiring any new employees and in fact may cause layoffs. What it comes down to is two choices: Take a chance or trust to chance.

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