Friday, January 27, 2012

Out Of The Huddle On New Technology.

Well, another green energy company has declared bankruptcy. A car battery company that also received a couple of hundred million in grant money. I can't wait to hear the, I TOLD YA SO, chorus. I guess people forget easily when it could be an argument for the other side. I don't have a list, but in any new technology research and development, you are guaranteed to have some failures. Maybe a lot of failures before you win the day. I do have a couple of examples to share. The Japanese have been working on a "fast breeder" nuclear power plant since the 1960s. They've spent literally many tens of billions of dollars on it. Now, after some sixty years they can't afford to continue the research that even the researchers admit may not provide a commercial reactor until the 2050s. The other is the development of the atomic bomb during WW11. They tried many time and failed many times to make it work. finally they went ahead without even testing one. Now, being able to say "I told ya so" doesn't make you a scientist or an engineer and certainly not in that field. What it does do is to point out that you are a very accomplished second guesser. You would make an excellent Monday Morning Quarterback. Then again, maybe not. Because a few failures doesn't render a science wrong or worthless. What it does mean is that they need to step back and take a look at where they are and whether or not it's worth proceeding. That call is best made with the researchers input. And that input should carry some heavy weight. The thing is, from outside, you just don't know how close they came to or are to, getting it right. The fact that this car battery company is filing for bankruptcy protection, doesn't mean they won't succeed in the next year or so. What if they do make a breakthrough? Where will these Monday Morning Quarterbacks be then? Why they'll claim they knew it all the time. Don't ya just love it?

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