Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Keep One Eye On The Gambler. Maybe two.

Say, what's the word on energy these days? Well, government inspectors are talking about relaxing oversight on derivatives, especially on oil. With oil, you have several cost centers. There's the extraction cost center, where you actually get the oil out of the ground, then there's the refinement cost centers where the oil is refined into gasoline, home heating oil and a myriad of other products. Next comes the distribution cost center. The tankers, truck drivers and gas stations, for gasoline. All of this can be clumped into the physical side of the cost of oil and it amounts to a little over two thirds of the price at the pump. The last cost center is the derivatives or trader cost center. This is where modern day, Wall Street, tinhorn gamblers play cards for profit and the other one third of the price of gasoline. This is where uncle Sam wants to ease up on oversight. Now you couldn't very well get along without the extraction cost center, The same is true for the refinement and distribution cost centers. But if you really wanted to get the price of gasoline and all the other oil based products,  like many plastics, down, you just might be able to get along without the last cost center. That's because, while it does add more to the cost of oil, it just doesn't add any value to the oil. The other three do add value, each in it's own way. The only value the fourth adds is to the pockets of the derivatives dealers. Not unlike the value the old tinhorn riverboat gambler added to the cost of the dollar. So if these dealers in gambling are relieved of oversight by the government, they will do what? Be extra honest? Not overcharge for their services? If nobody is watching a riverboat gambler, you might think that he'll deal from the bottom of the deck, right? Well, what's to suggest these modern day gamblers won't do the same? Because they wear pin-striped suits? But didn't riverboat gamblers wear suits too? Maybe it's the pin-stripes. I'll bet that's it. If one of these guys were to wear a solid navy blue, double-breasted, you might not trust him, but with pinstripes, he's okay, right? But if the government doesn't check to see what he's wearing today, and you can't see him, how are you supposed to know what to think of him?

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